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Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade.

The DecoderIndependent reporting·
AI brief

Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu, who predicts about 1.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced.

Why it matters: It presents a prominent economist's view that bigger AI models will not substantially boost economic growth or employment.

Written by AI from The Decoder's published text.

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“Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu. He predicts about 1.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced. Bigger models won't move the needle, he argues.”
The Decoder, 06 Oct 2026, 17:31.

Reporting from a publisher outside the organisation being covered.

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