Is your uncertainty map wrong, or is its target? Exact diagnostics for the Tweedie diagonal, and a gradient-free alternative.

arXiv:2609.33786v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A diffusion model can predict a follow-up medical scan from a baseline, but a clinician needs a per-voxel map of where that prediction can be trusted. Many such maps approximate the diagonal of the Tweedie poster