Calibrated Enough to Know, Not Calibrated to Act: Fabricated Evidence Makes LLM Agents Commit to the Unknowable.

arXiv:2608.27167v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: An LLM agent shown a professional-looking market panel commits to a directional call on a provably unpredictable question far more often than one asked the bare question: across 12 frontier models, commitment